Assuming the next assembly elections are conducted as scheduled, the ruling party, the DMK, irrespective of who leads it, has to contend with anti-incumbency. For reasons beyond my comprehension, the people of Tamil Nadu have not voted back a party in power for a second term again, in the last 20 years (this includes President's Rule two times). I still vividly remember Dr. Kalaignar addressing the press at Anna Arivalayam after a dismal showing in the 2001 assembly elections when he said he accepted the verdict of the people but could not understand why the tally plummeted to a mere 31 from a whopping 173 which the DMK had in the outgoing assembly. The AIADMK and Ms. Jayalalitha, who had been written off after the election debacle of 1996 staged a very strong comeback, increasing their tally from 4 in 1996 to 131 in 2001, and this after scores of cases had been filed against Ms. Jayalalitha for misusing Government machinery. As Dr. Kalaignar mentioned in that press briefing, perhaps the people of Tamil Nadu did have a very short memory. If these occurrences in the recent past are anything to go by, the AIADMK would give themselves a more than just a decent chance of coming back to power.
Post 1967, Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK to such a great extent that the national parties like the INC and BJP have been reduced to being even less than mere spectators. The INC's call to recreate Kamaraj rule continues to remain a mere dream with lack of unity in the local unit. The BJP has never had a significant presence in Tamil Nadu, and the leaders will fully well realize the necessity to side with one of the two of DMK and AIADMK. Though ideologically an alliance with the AIADMK may me more natural, a lot depends on how the verdict of the Lok Sabha turns out. So, with the national players almost out of the picture, the incumbents have to contend only with the regional parties.
(Why I have chosen to write this blog from the point of view of the DMK is because of two reasons
1. the title of the blog!!
2. i have found it a lot easier to write from the point of view of the ruling party!!)
I think it is unnecessary to talk about the small parties which have created little or no impact in elections thus far, either alone or as a part of an alliance, as I strongly believe it will remain the same in the next assembly elections also.
constituency, a The DMDK, led by actor turned politician Mr. Vijayakanth had a pretty good outing in the 2006 assembly elections garnering a vote share of about 8%, which is a remarkable performance on debut. In spite of having such a big vote share, the party ended up with just 1 seat as the votes were distributed across many regions. Mr. Vijayakanth's victory from the Vridhachalam constituency, a PMK stronghold speaks volumes about his popularity and it will be interesting to see how much of his personal charisma helps his party increase its tally this time. It might be a little too premature to comment either way on Mr. Sarathkumar's impact on the elections, but I am sure he would be extremely happy if he manages to win a few seats.
The PMK's relations have soured a little bit with the DMK in recent times and a major political rearrangement may be in the offing especially as the Lok Sabha elections close in. The PMK have traditionally done well in certain regions over a period of time and have a very solid and a safe vote bank.
The MDMK is a much weakened party these days with Mr. Vaiko having to contend with not only political setbacks, but also internal squabbles. I don't see the party severing ties with the AIADMK atleast in the near future. The recognition by the Election Commission of India that the faction led by Mr. Vaiko to be the original MDMK must have come as huge relief for him and his partymen. Given all the political compulsions, walking out of the DMK alliance over seat sharing could well be the biggest political plunder committed by Mr. Vaiko as it practically dented his image as a person with integrity and principles-a rarity these days in public life.
Atleast for now, only the AIADMK has the strength in its ranks to seriously challenge the DMK in an assembly election and vice-versa. The principal opponent of the DMK will be the AIADMK irrespective of how the other parties align themselves. As I said earlier, going by just the pattern, the AIADMK look set to have a good outing in the assembly elections. How much of an impact the Lok Sabha elections would have on the assembly elections remains to be seen. But, if the assembly elections witness a triangular fight, with the third party being the DMDK, we may have a hung assembly again. Both the DMK and the AIADMK would know very well that Mr. Vijayakanth's party is no weakling in the political arena, especially after an impressive showing in the previous assembly elections. The DMDK would look to campaign on the 'give us a chance and see for yourselves' platform and if it does have takers, we could have Mr. Vijayakanth taking an all new avatar-that of a kingmaker!!
As far as the future of the DMK goes, even though it has been controlled by one family and may continue to be in the future, the cadre based party that the DMK is, enables it to have prominent leaders with enviable election records in Mr. Anbazhagan, Mr. Arcot Veerasamy, Mr. Durai Murugan, Mr. Aladi Aruna, Mr. Kosi Mani, Mr. Ponmudi among others, in its ranks. While the absence of even a prominent, let alone strong second rung leadership in the AIADMK, which solely relies on the personal magnetism of Ms. Jayalalitha, might make things a little easier for the DMK's future leadership, the political acumen and personal appeal of Ms. Jayalalitha is something they will have to grapple with. A fully stabilized and strong DMDK only spells more trouble for the DMK.
(As I took a stroll in the road, a vernacular magazine had come up with an interesting headline-"Ayya moves closer to Amma and Puratchi Kalaignar moves closer to Kalaignar"- sensational journalism at its best for you!!)
Post 1967, Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK to such a great extent that the national parties like the INC and BJP have been reduced to being even less than mere spectators. The INC's call to recreate Kamaraj rule continues to remain a mere dream with lack of unity in the local unit. The BJP has never had a significant presence in Tamil Nadu, and the leaders will fully well realize the necessity to side with one of the two of DMK and AIADMK. Though ideologically an alliance with the AIADMK may me more natural, a lot depends on how the verdict of the Lok Sabha turns out. So, with the national players almost out of the picture, the incumbents have to contend only with the regional parties.
(Why I have chosen to write this blog from the point of view of the DMK is because of two reasons
1. the title of the blog!!
2. i have found it a lot easier to write from the point of view of the ruling party!!)
I think it is unnecessary to talk about the small parties which have created little or no impact in elections thus far, either alone or as a part of an alliance, as I strongly believe it will remain the same in the next assembly elections also.
constituency, a The DMDK, led by actor turned politician Mr. Vijayakanth had a pretty good outing in the 2006 assembly elections garnering a vote share of about 8%, which is a remarkable performance on debut. In spite of having such a big vote share, the party ended up with just 1 seat as the votes were distributed across many regions. Mr. Vijayakanth's victory from the Vridhachalam constituency, a PMK stronghold speaks volumes about his popularity and it will be interesting to see how much of his personal charisma helps his party increase its tally this time. It might be a little too premature to comment either way on Mr. Sarathkumar's impact on the elections, but I am sure he would be extremely happy if he manages to win a few seats.
The PMK's relations have soured a little bit with the DMK in recent times and a major political rearrangement may be in the offing especially as the Lok Sabha elections close in. The PMK have traditionally done well in certain regions over a period of time and have a very solid and a safe vote bank.
The MDMK is a much weakened party these days with Mr. Vaiko having to contend with not only political setbacks, but also internal squabbles. I don't see the party severing ties with the AIADMK atleast in the near future. The recognition by the Election Commission of India that the faction led by Mr. Vaiko to be the original MDMK must have come as huge relief for him and his partymen. Given all the political compulsions, walking out of the DMK alliance over seat sharing could well be the biggest political plunder committed by Mr. Vaiko as it practically dented his image as a person with integrity and principles-a rarity these days in public life.
Atleast for now, only the AIADMK has the strength in its ranks to seriously challenge the DMK in an assembly election and vice-versa. The principal opponent of the DMK will be the AIADMK irrespective of how the other parties align themselves. As I said earlier, going by just the pattern, the AIADMK look set to have a good outing in the assembly elections. How much of an impact the Lok Sabha elections would have on the assembly elections remains to be seen. But, if the assembly elections witness a triangular fight, with the third party being the DMDK, we may have a hung assembly again. Both the DMK and the AIADMK would know very well that Mr. Vijayakanth's party is no weakling in the political arena, especially after an impressive showing in the previous assembly elections. The DMDK would look to campaign on the 'give us a chance and see for yourselves' platform and if it does have takers, we could have Mr. Vijayakanth taking an all new avatar-that of a kingmaker!!
As far as the future of the DMK goes, even though it has been controlled by one family and may continue to be in the future, the cadre based party that the DMK is, enables it to have prominent leaders with enviable election records in Mr. Anbazhagan, Mr. Arcot Veerasamy, Mr. Durai Murugan, Mr. Aladi Aruna, Mr. Kosi Mani, Mr. Ponmudi among others, in its ranks. While the absence of even a prominent, let alone strong second rung leadership in the AIADMK, which solely relies on the personal magnetism of Ms. Jayalalitha, might make things a little easier for the DMK's future leadership, the political acumen and personal appeal of Ms. Jayalalitha is something they will have to grapple with. A fully stabilized and strong DMDK only spells more trouble for the DMK.
(As I took a stroll in the road, a vernacular magazine had come up with an interesting headline-"Ayya moves closer to Amma and Puratchi Kalaignar moves closer to Kalaignar"- sensational journalism at its best for you!!)
6 comments:
A very nice analysis. It would be good if we have a really competing third party. It will at least freshen the stale state of affairs.
True, that the ADMK has not projected any of its top leaders except Ms. JJ which would turn out to be costly in far future, if not the next assembly elections.
As for DMK, it would be fair (but perhaps improbable) for Mr. Anbazhagan to lead. He is a person equipped with both the vital weapons for politics - A keen political acumen and loads of experience. But the X-factor of the MK family is missing making it a costly gamble.
The other players like BJP and INC should seriously revise their plan of action instead of getting allied with the more probable winners. Their position as a national party shows its azhilles heel in Tamil Nadu.
And captain will be looking forward for the elections : "Let's Start the mizzon"
One doubt... Who is ayya is the last line?
@thesevethart
if i may clarify for you, the ayya referred to is Ramadoss.
don.. sensational journalism in vernaculars.. rings a lot of bells.. :)
on the serious front I'd imagine that BJP would almost definitely align with ADMK though I would not be too sure if Ayya and Amma can work together.
Since I'd p[resume that DMDK will not win a single seat, atleast in the LS polls its role would be more vital in terms of cashing in on other paries votes, a role more of a spoiler than a falicitator.
Besides with the recent reworking of the constituencies and more number of seats falling in the urban category BJP could be more of a force, though still small, than it was. So a tie up with the ADMK could boost its chances tremendously, especially in the DMK bastion of Chennai.
And I do agree that given Amma's "huge" political stature she'll always be difficult to grapple with. ;)
P.S. A suggestion.. Try dropping the Mr and Ms tags. Not only do our politicians not deserve so much respect but also gives too formal a feel to the blog.
@hariharan sriram
i would have to agree with u on the fact that the DMDK would not be able to win a single seat in the LS polls more because of an identity crisis the candidate may face!!! also as u pointed out, the could spoil the chances of quite a few people and that could be very crucial for the DMK (remember a similar thing happened when MDMK contested alone??)
a(GO)**a is an oppurtunist and it is only natural he sides with the 'winnable' party(s)
and as far as the impact BJP can create i am pretty much doubtful inspite of the reworkin gof constituencies. it does not have the strength in its cadres and getting suitable seats as a part of an alliance with the AIADMK will be VERY difficult.
@theseventhart
thank you very much da :)
@hariharan
i have added the Mr and Ms with a lot of difficulty and pain!!!
time for another blog in the aftermath of the pmk and dmk having ended their flirtation?
@theseventhart
But i guess the AIADMK has a lot of time in its hands to groom leaders for the future...Ms. JJ has atleast 10yrs for sure unless some catastrophe happens...
Post a Comment